In the last installment of the Adventurous BA, I discussed Solution Evaluation. One technique used in solution evaluation is decision analysis. In this article, I am going to focus on the technique of Decision Analysis.

When doing Decision Analysis there are five parts to it, but for this situation, I am going focus on the first three.

1) Define Problem Statement: clearly describe the decision problem to be addressed.

2) Define Alternatives: identify possible propositions or courses of action.

3) Evaluate Alternatives: determine a logical approach to analyze the alternatives. An agreement on evaluation criteria can also be determined at the beginning of this activity.

4) Choose an Alternative to Implement: the stakeholder is responsible for deciding which alternative will be implemented based on the decision analysis results.

5) Implement Choice: implement the chosen alternative.

Define Problem Statement:

The problem at hand is executing the plan for a hiking route across Isle Royale that considers the presence of algae blooms, considers the desire to hike for an average of 5 hours per day, and allows for flexibility in case of adverse weather conditions. The primary objective is to choose a route that minimizes exposure to harmful algae blooms while also maximizing the hiker's enjoyment and safety. Additionally, the route should be designed in such a way that the hiker can complete it within their desired time of an average of 5 hours per day. However, it is essential to acknowledge that hiking conditions can be unpredictable, so the chosen route should also provide options to hunker down and wait out harsh weather or other unforeseen events that might arise during the journey.

Rock Harbor Lighthouse, the oldest of the lighthouses in the park

Evaluate Alternatives:

Route 1 in Yellow: Greenstone Ridge Trail

This trail allows for the most flexibility as it is the shortest route, and we will be able to explore more of the western side of the island. Unfortunately, it also has the greatest risk of Algae blooming as most of the water sources are inland where this occurs.

Criteria 1: Water Source Rated 2nd: as it has the most interior water source.

Criteria 2: Distance per day 1st: is the shortest and only 1 day with over 5 hours of hiking expected.

Criteria 3: Flexibility Rated 1st: it has the shortest hikes and most direct route so we could do more on the west side of the island once we get there.

Total = 4

Route 2 in Yellow/Blue: Greenstone Ridge Trail to Feldtmann Loop

This Route has the most days on the trail however allows for more shelters and more reliable water sources. The Feldtmann Ridge portion of the trail is not hiked as much and may contain more overgrowth. However, in June, when we plan to do this hike the foliage may not be overgrown yet. It also is known for Moose sightings.

Criteria 1: Water Source Rated 1st: Some interior lakes, more Lake Superior, and shorter distances between water sources.

Criteria 2: Distance per day Rated 2nd: is the longest route and has two days with over 5 hours of hiking expected, however the second day is just over five hours and about 5:20 total time.

Criteria 3: Flexibility Rated 2nd: I rated this second because of the ability to head back to island mine if it gets too tough going to Feldtmann Lake.

Total = 5

Route 3 in Yellow / Pink: Greenstone Ridge to Minong Trail

The Minong Trail is considered one of the toughest trails on the island. It is the least maintained trail and has the longest days on the trail between campsites.

Criteria 1: Water Source Rated 3rd: Most of the water sources are from Lake Superior however the last portion of the hike would be an interior lake and if it had Algae blooming, it would be a lot of hiking to get more water and the last leg is a twelve-mile stretch where you don’t want to run out of water.

Criteria 2: Distance Per Day Rated 3rd: This is the middle-distance route and has two days with over 6 hours of hiking expected

Criteria 3: Flexibility Rated 3rd: I rated this third because of the ability to head back extends the trip and has a lot of extra hiking. Once on this trail you lose flexibility.

Total = 9

Decision Matrix:

I am using a basic decision matrix. All my solutions based on the time of the year I am doing my hike meet my criteria, so I decided to rate each criterion from one to three. One being the best and three being the least desirable.

Choose Alternative to Implement: The group that I am hiking with plans to hike the yellow route currently. As we get closer to our trip up to and including the Ferry ride over, we will be using up to date information on which route to take.

Implement Choice: When hiking on a remote island located in the largest of the five great lakes and containing the second-deepest point in all the United States, you need to be flexible. Depending on weather and water conditions will determine how we hike our hike. Fun fact Ryan Island in Isle Royale's Siskiwit Lake is the largest island on the largest lake on the largest island on the largest freshwater lake in the world. Also, that was once a question on Jeopardy!

Would you have used the same criteria? If not, why?

Navigating Nature's Choices: Decision Analysis for an Isle Royale Adventure